Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $255,117$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,371.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 96.9)}}\) (asimptote \(315,371.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,635$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,933.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 72.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,933.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,816$ on 2020-07-11

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,058$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,231.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 99.1)}}\) (asimptote \(54,231.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $386$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(38.1 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{381.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(381.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,711$ on 2020-07-11

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $75,194$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,778.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(123,778.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,055$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,946.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 120.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,946.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,060$ on 2020-07-11

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,981$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190,837.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(190,837.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,344$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,954.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,954.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,420$ on 2020-07-11

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $229,480$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(7.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{309,554.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.2)}}\) (asimptote \(309,554.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,181$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(55.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,361.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 105.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,361.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,903$ on 2020-07-11

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,470$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(613 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,113.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(44,113.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{168.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 107.6)}}\) (asimptote \(168.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,538$ on 2020-07-11

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,128$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.6)}}\) (asimptote \(107,562.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $146$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.41 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(186.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,048$ on 2020-07-11

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,697$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,691.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(80,691.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $248$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{437.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(437.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,194$ on 2020-07-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Qatar recovered 89%
Turkey recovered 83%
Singapore recovered 82%
Maldives recovered 72%
Iran recovered 29%
Nepal recovered 20%
Pakistan recovered 20%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,783$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,249.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,249.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(8.59 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,731$ on 2020-07-11

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,664$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(181 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,465.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 75.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,465.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.55 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(15.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $383$ on 2020-07-11

Nepal⮸

Population $29,136,808$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,719$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(317 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,088.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 66.6)}}\) (asimptote \(19,088.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(6.63 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,239$ on 2020-07-11

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,872$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(6.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{309,109.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 94.0)}}\) (asimptote \(309,109.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,197$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(211 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,052.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 84.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,052.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $86,975$ on 2020-07-11