Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $255,117$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,371.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 96.9)}}\) (asimptote \(315,371.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,635$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,933.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 72.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,933.1\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,816$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,058$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,231.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 99.1)}}\) (asimptote \(54,231.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $386$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(38.1 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{381.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(381.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,711$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $75,194$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,778.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(123,778.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,055$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,946.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 120.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,946.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,060$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $211,981$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190,837.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(190,837.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,344$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,954.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,954.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,420$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $229,480$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(7.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{309,554.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.2)}}\) (asimptote \(309,554.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,181$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(55.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,361.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 105.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,361.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61,903$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,470$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(613 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,113.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(44,113.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $104$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{168.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 107.6)}}\) (asimptote \(168.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,538$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,128$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.6)}}\) (asimptote \(107,562.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $146$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(4.41 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(186.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,048$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,697$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,691.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(80,691.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $248$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{437.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(437.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,194$ on 2020-07-11